Montys World #2

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Current timeTotal duration Video transcript Let's now tackle a classic thought experiment in probability, called the Monte Hall problem. And it's called the Monty Hall problem because Monty Hall was the game show host in Let's Make a Deal, where they would set up a situation very similar to the Monte Hall problem that we're about to say. So let's say that on the show, you're presented with three curtains. So you're the contestant, this little chef-looking character right over there. You're presented with three curtains-- curtain number one, curtain number two, and curtain number three. And you're told that behind one of these three curtains, there's a fabulous prize, something that you really want, a car, or a vacation, or some type of large amount of cash.

And then behind the other two, and we don't know which they are, there is something that you do not want. A new pet goat or an ostrich or something like that, or a beach ball, something that is not as good as the cash prize. And so your goal is to try to find the cash prize. And they say guess which one, or which one would you like to select? And so let's say that you select door number one, or curtain number one.

They want to show you whether or not you won. They'll then show you one of the other two doors, or one of the other two curtains. And they'll show you one of the other two curtains that does not have the prize. And no matter which one you pick, there'll always be at least one other curtain that does not have the prize.

There might be two, if you picked right. But there will always be at least one other curtain that does not have the prize. And then they will show it to you.

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And so let's say that they show you curtain number three. And so curtain number three has the goat. And then they'll ask you, do you want to switch to curtain number two? And the question here is, does it make a difference? Are you better off holding fast, sticking to your guns, staying with the original guess? Are you better off switching to whatever curtain is left? Or does it not matter? It's just random probability, and it's not going to make a difference whether you switch or not.

So that is the brain teaser. Pause the video now. I encourage you to think about it. In the next video, we will start to analyze the solution a little bit deeper, whether it makes any difference at all.

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So now I've assumed that you've unpaused it. You've thought deeply about it.

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Perhaps you have an opinion on it. Now let's work it through a little bit. And at any point, I encourage you to pause it and kind of extrapolate beyond what I've already talked about. So let's think about the game show from the show's point of view. So the show knows where there's the goat and where there isn't the goat. So let's door number one, door number two, and door number three. So let's say that our prize is right over here. So our prize is the car.

Our prize is the car, and that we have a goat over here, and over here we also have-- maybe we have two goats in this situation. So what are we going to do as the game show?

The Monty Hall problem

Remember, the contestants don't know this. We know this. So the contestant picks door number one right over here. Then we can't lift door number two because there's a car back there. We're going to lift door number three, and we're going to expose this goat. In which case, it probably would be good for the person to switch.

If the person picks door number two, then we as the game show can show either door number one or door number three, and then it actually does not make sense for the person to switch. If they picked door number three, then we have to show door number one because we can't pick door number two. Painstakingly researched, it offers a very thorough account of Monty's war years, up until his promotion to Field Marshal in September Likemost biographies, this work is not free of bias in favor of the subject.

Hamilton recognizes most of the controversies involving Montgomery and his relations with this American commanders and peers, but tends to default judgments in Montgomery's favor, rather than dig to find This is volume 2 of Hamilton's 3 volume set on the life of Bernard Montgomery. Hamilton recognizes most of the controversies involving Montgomery and his relations with this American commanders and peers, but tends to default judgments in Montgomery's favor, rather than dig to find a balance of truth.

For example, with regards to Operation Goodwood Hamilton completely supports Monty 's position that the operational plan never intended to achieve a breakthrough. He supports Monty's position that any and all statements addressing a breakthrough were either to deceive the press or were necessary to gain the required air support from SHAEF headquarters. Hamilton does not address Monty's messages to Alan Brooke CIGS nor to Eisenhower which clearly indicate that he intended more than just a fixing attack. All in all, this is a good narrative of Monty's war years, but readers should read with some skepticism.

Hamilton seeks to tell Montgomery's story, but does not necessarily seek to tell history. One further note - Hamilton wrote this book before much was known about the ULTRA secret, knowledge of which can account for some degree on Montgomery's genius on the battlefield Montgomery stood at the centre of some of the greatest battles of the Second World War. He was often crucially successful but at times fell short. Hamilton does a very well researched job of describing both the military events and the problems created by Montgomery's ego. He tends to give his subject the benefit of doubt in controversies, probably more benefit than is sometimes due.

But he also acknowledges Montgomery's weaknesses and occasionally eccentric ideas, while explaining in detail why Montgomery stood at the centre of some of the greatest battles of the Second World War.

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But he also acknowledges Montgomery's weaknesses and occasionally eccentric ideas, while explaining in detail why Montgomery's contributions may not have been fully recognized. In particular, although the details remain sketchy, it's quite possible that Montgomery's insistence on the largest possible invasion force at Normandy prevented what could have become a colossal disaster. Too many other assessments of his role seem influenced by dislike of his personality and in American writers' case by simple recycling of attitudes rather than by objective observation.

The denouement in late is the rather sad tale of Montgomery's clashes with Eisenhower and eventual climbdown. That also serves effectively as a symbol for the overall retreat of Britain's role in the world before the reality of American pragmatism and power. Sep 06, Rod rated it it was amazing.

One of the best WW2 books I have ever read. Superbly researched by Nigel Hamilton and written in a most readable style. Monty may have been an eccentric, but this book convinced me that he was most certainly the finest General of WW2. He seemed, however, almost to have more enemies on his own side than those he was fighting. Tedder and Cunninham appear particularly bad with their plotting and blinkered attitude.

They did not even have the excuse of being American and thus subject to political pr One of the best WW2 books I have ever read. They did not even have the excuse of being American and thus subject to political pressure from home.

If you are interested in Allied strategy in the European Theatre from to this book is a must. It also convincingly debunks many of the myths surrounding the Overlord strategy and the taking of Caen, showing, with evidence, that Monty stuck to his pre-operation strategy throughout, leading to the capture of up to , of Germany's finest troops and equipment.

Hitler called it his 'darkest hour' and the turning point of the war. Dec 24, John rated it liked it Shelves: own , nonfiction , bio. Well,I did like it but it had so much info and it took a week to read as i kept putting it down to read other things which interested me more. Certainly did give Monty's spin on things but i think the author was fair, very fair. Would like to read more of this author. Feb 11, Mr Roy Davidson rated it liked it.

May 20, Jonathan rated it it was amazing Shelves: world-war-2 , british-history. I'll save the big review for the last volume of the trilogy.

Overlord and the resulting campaign is Monty's masterpiece, and it was the battle that won the Second World War in the West. May 26, Mick Maye rated it really liked it Recommends it for: once. Shelves: world-war Informative aand all encompassing biography. David Martin rated it it was amazing Jan 24, JerryNotts rated it it was amazing Jul 15, Scott Campbell rated it liked it Nov 18, Mark rated it it was amazing Jun 02, Betsy Connor rated it liked it Jun 08, Robert rated it liked it Jul 06, Mark Hamilton rated it it was amazing Oct 27, David rated it it was amazing Sep 18, Brian rated it liked it May 26, Matthew rated it liked it Aug 01, Wenzl Schollum rated it really liked it Jan 28, Sam Gunn rated it liked it Dec 19, Jorel rated it it was amazing Jul 14, Wim rated it it was amazing Oct 01, Trevor Palmer rated it it was amazing Jul 17, Tim rated it really liked it Sep 15,


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